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anticipated a contraction of 0.7% in 2015.
Four of the 14 Latin American industries covered
in the report are expected to grow in 2015 but 12
should advance, albeit marginally, in 2016.
Three industries — food and beverages, motor
vehicles, and machinery and equipment — account
for roughly 45% of the region’s manufacturing
and are therefore most important to the forecast.
Production of food and beverages — the largest
industry and one of the most stable — should
increase 1.3% in 2015 and 2.5% in 2016. The
automotive sector is forecast to increase production
a timid 0.5% this year and 4.1% next year. Machinery
and equipment is forecast to see a decrease of 3.6%
in 2015 before a 1.6% advance in 2016.
U.S. Deficit in Manufactures Up 19% in First
Half of 2015, Chinese Surplus Rises by 14%
Improved second quarter trade data for
manufactures did little to stem the tide of a
downward trend for the United States, according to
an analysis from the MAPI Foundation.
In the report, Ernest Preeg, Ph.D., MAPI Foundation
senior advisor for international trade and finance,
notes that U.S. manufactured exports decreased
by 2%, to $298 billion, in the second quarter as
compared with 2014. The U.S. deficit in manufactures
rose by $21 billion, or 15%, compared with the
second quarter of 2014. This follows a 30% increase
in the manufacturing trade deficit in the first quarter,
inflated by weather issues and a West Coast dock
Chinese exports were also down 2%, to $533
billion, in the second quarter on a year-over-year
basis. China’s trade surplus increased by $14 billion in
the second quarter over 2014, or by 6%, and follows
a 24% rise in the first quarter of 2015.
“Although global trade in manufactures is growing
at a much slower pace in 2015, the U.S. and Chinese
trade imbalances continue to surge at high, double-digit rates,” Preeg writes. “The U.S. $48 billion deficit
increase in the first half of the year equates to a loss
of 300,000 trade-related American manufacturing
jobs, and the deficit is on track for a loss of 500,000
or more jobs for the calendar year.
“This is the sixth consecutive year of soaring trade
deficits and very large job losses, which from 2009 to
2015 will total 2. 5 million, or 25% of the sector labor
force,” he adds.
The 10 largest high-technology export industries
made up 65% of total U.S. manufactured exports
and 52% of Chinese exports in the first half of 2015.
Chinese exports in the first half were $532 billion, or
41% larger than the $376 billion of U.S. exports, and
were in surplus by $166 billion compared with a $160
billion U.S. deficit.
According to Preeg, the new data, combined
with China devaluing its currency relative to the
dollar in order to stimulate exports, continues an
unfair and unbalanced trade relationship for U.S.
From 2009 to 2014, the U.S. trade deficit in
manufactures doubled to $550 billion, while the
Chinese surplus doubled to $1 trillion and the EU
surplus doubled to $500 billion.
“Sixty percent of the U.S. $600 billion annual
trade deficit in manufactures is with China, and
therefore exchange rate–induced exports by China
result principally in increased U.S. imports, which
economists refer to as the ‘beggar-they-neighbor’
effect,” he concludes.
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